New vessel deliveries are colliding with softening demand on the Asia–Europe lane. For shippers, the next two quarters are a rare window to renegotiate — but only if you understand where the market is actually heading.
After two years of historic volatility, container shipping is entering a period of structural oversupply. The order book that carriers placed during the 2021–22 boom is now hitting the water, adding capacity faster than global trade volumes can absorb it. That imbalance is the single most important dynamic for any business planning its 2026 freight budget.
Below, we break down the three forces reshaping ocean rates and the practical steps our clients are taking to protect margins through the back half of the year.
1. Capacity is outrunning demand
Roughly 2.9 million TEU of new capacity is scheduled for delivery this year — the largest single-year addition on record. Even with accelerated scrapping of older tonnage and continued blank sailings, the effective fleet is growing well ahead of the 2–3% demand growth most analysts forecast.
Shippers who lock structured contracts now — with volume flexibility built in — are the ones who’ll sleep through the next rate spike.
— James Okafor, Head of Ocean Freight
2. Rates are softening — unevenly
Spot rates on the major east–west lanes have retreated from their peaks, but the decline isn’t uniform. Red Sea diversions continue to absorb capacity and add transit time, propping up rates that would otherwise fall further. We expect a gradual softening into Q4, punctuated by short-lived spikes around peak season and Lunar New Year.
- Move 60–70% of volume to index-linked contracts before peak season locks in higher spot rates.
- Keep a 15–20% spot buffer so you can flex up without paying premium space charges.
- Negotiate minimum-quantity commitments now — carriers reward them with priority allocation later.
3. What shippers should do now
The playbook is straightforward: use this window to move a larger share of volume onto index-linked contracts, keep 15–20% on the spot market for flexibility, and build in minimum-quantity commitments that carriers will reward with priority space when demand rebounds.
If you’d like a lane-by-lane review of your current freight spend, our desk offers a free 30-minute audit — no obligation, just a clear read on where you’re overpaying.
